The Orange County housing market moved into the spring season with steady momentum, showing signs of a more balanced market compared to the extreme seller conditions of recent years. While demand remains strong, rising inventory and pricing sensitivity are beginning to shift negotiating power slightly toward buyers.
Pricing Trends
- Median home price: ~$1.3M (up ~4.9% year-over-year)
- Median list price: ~$1.26M
- Price growth has moderated, with some segments flattening or slightly adjusting earlier in the year
- Overall, values remain near record highs, indicating long-term stability
Days on Market (DOM)
- Median days on market: ~43 days
- Average days on market: ~46–52 days, depending on property type
- Median days to pending: ~17 days
By price point:
- Under $1M: ~26–28 days
- $1M–$2M: ~25–26 days
- $2M+: ~50+ days (luxury segment slower)
Compared to last year, homes are taking ~5 days longer to sell on average, signaling a slight market cooling.
Inventory & Supply
- Active inventory: ~5,077 homes
- New listings (March): ~2,044
- Inventory is rising year-over-year, giving buyers more choices
Despite this increase:
- ~75% of homes have been on the market 60 days or less
- Only ~17% of listings exceed 90 days, indicating continued absorption of inventory
Sales & Demand
- Homes sold: slightly down year-over-year
- Median sale-to-list ratio: ~98.9%
- ~29% of homes sold over asking
- ~58–59% sold below asking
Interpretation: Buyers are gaining more negotiating leverage, but well-priced homes are still competitive.
Key Market Dynamics
1. Market is Normalizing
- Slightly longer DOM and more price adjustments reflect a shift away from peak frenzy conditions.
2. Pricing Strategy Matters More than Ever
- Many sellers are listing high and adjusting downward based on buyer feedback.
3. Segmentation is Critical
- Entry-level homes remain highly competitive.
- Luxury properties are experiencing longer marketing times and more selectivity.
4. Buyer Opportunity Window Emerging
Increased inventory and stabilized interest rates (~6–6.5%) are creating more options and negotiating room.
Bottom Line
Orange County’s March 2026 market can best be described as balanced but still resilient:
- Prices: Stable to modestly up (~+4–5% YoY)
- Days on market: Slightly longer (~43–52 days)
- Inventory: Increasing (more buyer choice)
- Negotiation: Shifting slightly toward buyers
Well-priced homes are still selling quickly — but the days of automatic bidding wars across all price points are behind us.
