If you’re considering buying or selling a home, you’re likely paying close attention to mortgage rates and wondering what might come next. One key factor influencing mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which affects the cost for banks to borrow money from each other. Although the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, it does control the Federal Funds Rate. Changes in this rate can indirectly impact mortgage rates, so many people are closely watching for any shifts from the Fed.
There are three crucial factors the Fed consider when deciding whether to adjust the Federal Funds Rate:
1. Inflation Rate
You’ve probably noticed rising prices over the past couple of years—this is due to high inflation. The Fed aims to bring inflation down to 2%, but currently, it’s still above that target, though it’s improving. For more details, check out our previous blog post on how interest rates impact home prices.
2. Job Growth
The Fed monitors how many new jobs are created each month. A consistent slowdown in job creation is a sign that the economy is cooling down, which is what the Fed wants. Recent data suggests that job growth is slowing, with fewer jobs added in recent months than before. According to Inman, recent reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate a deceleration in job creation, a positive sign for the Fed.
3. Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate reflects the percentage of people actively seeking work but unable to find jobs. A low unemployment rate generally indicates a strong job market but can also contribute to higher inflation due to increased spending. Currently, the unemployment rate is low but has been rising slowly. The Fed is looking for a higher unemployment rate as it would help reduce inflation by decreasing spending.
What This Means for the Future
Mortgage rates might remain unpredictable in the near term. However, the current trends are encouraging for the Fed, indicating that the economy is moving in the desired direction. Despite these positive signs, it’s unlikely that the Fed will cut the Federal Funds Rate in their upcoming meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated, “We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.” This cautious stance aims to ensure that any policy changes are supported by consistent data.
If the trends continue as expected, there’s a 96.1% chance, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, that the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate in September. Remember, while the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, a reduction in the Federal Funds Rate usually leads to lower mortgage rates.
Be aware that economic reports, global events, and other factors can influence the timing of Fed actions. Therefore, trying to time the market based on these predictions can be risky.